Every year, the Council on Foreign Relations does a survey called the Preventive Priorities Survey. This survey shows a shift in the priorities of foreign policy experts.
For the first time in sixteen years, the poll says that the biggest worry in the United States is domestic terrorism and political violence (insider threats), especially in the months leading up to the 2024 presidential election.
According to the poll, there are three very likely and important outcomes:
1. Election-related violence in the US;
2. The conflict between Israel and Hamas getting worse and leading to a bigger war in the region; and
3. A lot of people are coming to the southwest border of the US because of what’s happening in Central America and Mexico.
Another important problem is the chance of a military conflict with either Russia or China.
The head of the Centre for Preventive Action talks about how the threat of foreign terrorism is going down while the threat of armed conflicts, especially those between Russia and China, is going up.
Tier I threats include tense relations between Russia, China, Taiwan, and North Korea; division in American politics; conflicts in the Middle East; problems with migration; and eight other situations.